E-commerce/Retail Digital Marketing Trends & Analysis Report 2025
Samuel Edwards
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September 9, 2025
Global ecommerce and retail marketing is entering a performance-and-first-party era: online sales continue to set records even as overall ad-budget growth cools, forcing teams to squeeze more yield from every channel (Adobe, eMarketer). Discovery is shifting toward social platforms and retailer ecosystems, accelerating the rise of retail media networks with high-signal, closed-loop measurement and growing budget share (eMarketer).
At the same time, rising CPC/CPM and tightening privacy guardrails require consented data, durable measurement, and lifecycle programs that compound—email/SMS, loyalty, subscriptions—augmented by AI to speed creative testing, merchandising, and product discovery (WordStream, Privacy Sandbox, Litmus).
This report distills the latest benchmarks and channel dynamics—what’s working in search, retail media, social/video, and onsite conversion—and how leaders are containing CAC, raising LTV, and turning seasonal spikes into sustained growth over the next 12–24 months.
Brief overview of industry marketing trends
Demand is resilient but efficiency-driven. U.S. ecommerce set a new holiday record at $241.4B (+8.7% YoY) in Nov–Dec 2024, and mobile now accounts for the majority of online transactions (54.5%), underscoring the need to optimize mobile UX and speed. Adobe Newsroom
Ad spend growth is slowing while mix shifts. U.S. digital ad spending growth will dip below 10% in 2025 for the first time in 16 years, even as budgets reallocate from classic search toward retail media and social/video. eMarketer
Retail media remains the outlier in growth. Advertisers are set to spend >$62B on U.S. retail media in 2025 (+$10B YoY), keeping it one of the fastest-growing channels thanks to high-signal, first-party purchase data. eMarketer
Costs and performance benchmarks are diverging by channel. 2025 averages point to Google Ads CPC at $5.26, Meta CPM around $9, and TikTok CPM in the ~$4–$6 range (seasonality applies). WordStreamBusiness of AppsGupta Media
AI is reshaping discovery and conversion. Retailers report rising AI-assisted discovery/assist traffic and conversions; AI-influenced orders materially contributed to 2024 holiday sales and are accelerating into 2025. InvestopediaSalesforce
Shifts in Customer Acquisition Strategies
From third-party cookies to first-party data. With Chrome’s Privacy Sandbox pivot and a user-choice model (3P cookies remain on by default for now), brands are doubling down on consented first-party data, CDPs, and modeled measurement instead of cross-site IDs. GOV.UK Assets | Privacy Sandbox
Retail media & commerce media move up the funnel. RMNs are expanding beyond onsite search into offsite, in-store screens, and closed-loop measurement, attracting incremental budget despite slower overall ad growth. EMARKETER
Mobile-first, social discovery, and flexible payments. Shoppers increasingly discover via social and use BNPL during major events (Prime Day BNPL ≈ 8% of sales in 2025), reinforcing the need for creator content, short-video, and diverse tender types. Salesforce | Adobe Business
AI-driven personalization returns to the core. Exec guidance (McKinsey/BCG) emphasizes moving from generic segmentation to AI-scaled 1:1 experiences to lift growth and ROAS. McKinsey & Company | Boston Consulting Group
Summary of Performance Benchmarks (High-Level)
Paid search: Avg CPC $5.26 across industries in 2025; YoY increases in many shopping categories. WordStream
Paid social (Meta): Avg CPM ≈ $8.96; ecommerce categories skew higher in competitive periods. Business of Apps
TikTok:CPM ~$6.21 (Jun 2025); costs fluctuate with seasonality and creative quality. Gupta Media
Cart abandonment: Avg ~70% remains a persistent headwind. Baymard Institute
Email performance: Email remains a top retention/ROAS lever; ~$36 return per $1 invested (channel average). Litmus
Key Takeaways
Anchor budgets in high-signal environments (retail media, search, email/SMS) while testing AI-assisted social discovery to capture new demand at lower CPMs. EMARKETER | WordStream | Litmus | Salesforce
Prioritize first-party data & consented personalization to future-proof acquisition and retention in light of Chrome’s evolving stance and regulator scrutiny. GOV.UK Assets
Win on mobile speed & UX (now the majority of transactions) and reduce checkout friction to claw back the 70% abandonment baseline. Adobe Newsroom | Baymard Institute
Plan for cost variability by channel (rising CPC/CPM) and manage CAC through LTV-positive lifecycle programs (email/SMS/loyalty) and incrementality testing. WordStream | Business of Apps
Global retail ecommerce sales (2025): ~$6.42T, +6.8% YoY — growth softens versus 2024 but the base keeps expanding. Ecommerce also surpasses 20% of all retail sales worldwide for the first time in 2025. EMARKETER
Growth rate of the sector (YoY & 5-year trend)
Worldwide: 2025 growth decelerates to +6.8% YoY on macro drag (notably China), with improvement expected in 2026; penetration keeps climbing. EMARKETER
US: 2025 ecommerce sales growth forecast +5.0% YoY under a moderate-tariff scenario; overall retail sales projected around +3.1%. EMARKETER
Digital adoption rate within the sector
Share of retail conducted online (worldwide, 2025): just over 20%; removing China, penetration is ~12.8%. EMARKETER
US ecommerce share (Q2 2025):16.3% of total retail (seasonally adjusted). Mobile now majority of transactions during peak season (54.5% of online orders in 2024 holidays). Census.gov | Adobe Newsroom
Marketing maturity (early → maturing → saturated)
Saturated:China, UK, South Korea, Indonesia, Norway — all exceed 20% ecommerce penetration (with China far above), and have dense retail-media ecosystems. EMARKETER
Maturing:United States — ecommerce penetration ~16–17% in 2025, rapid retail media scale (>$62B in 2025 ad spend). EMARKETER
Early: Many emerging markets with single-digit to low-teens penetration and nascent retail-media networks. EMARKETER
Visuals:
Bar chart — Industry digital ad spend over time (retail media as proxy)
Global retail media ad investment (USD billions): $128.2B (2023) → $153.3B (2024) → $176.2B (2025). Source: WARC/Global Ad Trends. WARC+2WARC+2
Pie chart — Marketing budget allocation (worldwide, 2025)
Digital advertising ≈ 75% of total global ad spend in 2025; traditional ≈ 25%. Within digital, retail media’s share is rising fast (mid-teens of total ad spend globally). Sources: eMarketer (digital share) and WARC (retail media). EMARKETERWARC
Why retail media as a proxy for “industry digital ad spend”: For ecommerce/retail marketers, retail media networks (Amazon, Walmart, Target, Instacart, etc.) are the fastest-growing digital line item with closed-loop, SKU-level measurement. Using WARC’s audited totals shows the structural rise of performance-oriented spend adjacent to ecommerce. WARC
Budget allocation pie (75% digital): reflects global 2025 mix; within the digital slice, retail media’s share is mid-teens of total ad spend (low-20s of digital in some markets). Use it as a top-down planning anchor; tailor with your own mix model. EMARKETER | WARC
Audience & Buyer Behavior Insights
ICP (Ideal Customer Profile) details
Below are three high-signal ecommerce/retail buyer archetypes you can target and measure against, with attributes grounded in current behavior shifts.
1) Value-seeking mobile shopper (Gen Z / Younger Millennials)
Profile: 18–34, mobile-first, heavy short-form video consumption; open to creators/influencers. Nearly 48% of Gen Z uses TikTok daily; 67% shop through social at least sometimes. Morning Consult Pro+1
Behaviors: Discovers via social and retail platforms; adds with BNPL during peak events (BNPL was 8.1% of orders during Prime Day 2025); shops late on mobile (e.g., smartphones dominated late-season purchases in 2024 holidays). Adobe BusinessReuters
What converts: Authentic UGC/reviews (shoppers who engage with UGC convert ~144% more and drive ~162% higher revenue/visitor). Shopify
Profile: 25–54, time-poor; mixes online and store missions. Half of US online adults used store pickup recently (one-third BOPIS), underscoring omnichannel preferences. Forrester
Behaviors: Often completes purchases in store (54%); marketplaces (40%) are a major endpoint; BOPIS used by ~34% of US consumers (2024). PwCCapital One Shopping
What converts: Inventory visibility, fast/cheap delivery, easy pickup and fast refunds (21% expect immediate, 33% within 24h). EMARKETER
Friction: Stockouts, clunky pickup, slow refunds.
3) Quality- & trust-oriented loyalist
Profile: 35+, higher income; values reliability and data stewardship. ~75% of consumers won’t buy from brands they don’t trust with data. Cisco
Behaviors: Research-heavy; still values in-store try/see for certain categories; will share data for useful personalization (strong preference for “treat me as an individual”). PwCSalesforce
What converts: Transparent privacy choices, consistent experiences, reviews; personalization expectations are high. Salesforce
Social-first discovery is mainstream (esp. Gen Z). Daily TikTok use is 48% among Gen Z; 67% of Gen Z shops via social; broader audience use of social for product/brand info has surged (e.g., +71% TikTok brand/product info usage since 2021). Morning Consult Pro+1GWI
UGC is decisive. Interacting with reviews/UGC drives a 144% conversion lift and 162% revenue/visitor lift. Shopify
Omnichannel habits are entrenched.~50% used store pickup recently; 54% ultimately buy in-store vs 40% via marketplaces—blending online research with local fulfillment. ForresterPwC
Value orientation persists. Consumers continue brand/retailer switching for price and promotions, with ~40% switching retailers in search of value; 44% consider store/discount brands. McKinsey & CompanyPwC
Returns shape loyalty. Expectations are accelerating: 21% want instant refunds, 33% within 24 hours; monthly online returns among consumers approach ~39%. EMARKETERPR Newswire
Privacy and personalization must coexist. Consumers expect personalization, but are more protective of data; 73% expect better personalization, while trust remains a purchase gate. SalesforceCisco
Speed (site & fulfillment) is a deal-maker. Faster sites correlate with higher conversion (e.g., 1s load ≈ 2.5× conversion vs 5s; small 0.1s speed gains lift retail conversions). PortentGoogle Business
Shifts in expectations (privacy, personalization, speed)
Privacy:~75% won’t purchase from brands they don’t trust with data; consumers increasingly understand privacy laws. Trust signals and consent control materially influence conversion. Cisco
Personalization:73% expect progressively better personalization as tech advances; customers want to be treated as unique individuals (major jump in perceived individuality in 2024). Salesforce+1
Speed:Site performance strongly correlates with conversion (1s vs 5s load ≈ 2.5× CVR; 0.1s faster → retail conversion up ~8%). Delivery/return speed and convenience (BOPIS, rapid refunds) are now baseline expectations. PortentGoogle BusinessForresterEMARKETER
Persona snapshot
Persona
Profile & Behaviors
Channels & Devices
What Converts
Proof Points
Value-seeking mobile shopper
18–34, price-sensitive, social-first discovery; comfortable with BNPL
Social discovery & social shopping: Morning Consult (Gen Z daily TikTok, social shopping), GWI trendlines; UGC impact: Bazaarvoice. Morning Consult Pro | GWI | Shopify
Efficient CPMs
(~$6.21 Jun-2025), strong Gen-Z reach; typically lower AOV & ROAS than Google/Meta.
* Notes on CAC for SEO & Email: CAC depends on program costs (people, content, platform fees) rather than “per-click” media spend, so it varies by brand maturity and volume. For paid channels, CPA is a practical CAC proxy.
This illustrates how paid media budgets skew across platforms in a large ecommerce cohort: Meta ~70.7%, Google ~23.1%, TikTok ~2.9%, Other ~3.3% (Pinterest, Snapchat, Reddit, etc.). Triple Whale
What the data says (ROI • Cost • Reach—at a glance)
ROI: Email remains the highest-ROI channel (median ≈ $36:1), especially when flows (abandoned cart, welcome) are used (~1.97% placed-order rate vs ~0.10% for one-off campaigns). Use flows to compound LTV. LitmusKlaviyo CMS
Cost: Meta and TikTok currently offer efficient CPMs (≈ $8.17 and $6.21) versus Google’s intent-driven clicks (CPC ≈ $1.16). TikTok’s CPAs can be low for lower-AOV items (≈ $15.08), while Google Search keeps strong purchase intent (e-comm CVR ≈ 2.81%). Gupta Media+1WordStream
Reach: In Apr-2025, Meta captured ~70.7% of paid spend among Triple Whale brands; Google ~23.1%; TikTok ~2.9%—use this as a starting point for paid mix, then tailor by AOV, margin, and LTV. Triple Whale
Method notes:
CPA as CAC proxy: For paid media, the platform-level CPA is the most comparable CAC measure. For SEO/Email, CAC depends on fixed program costs; we avoided fabricating a universal dollar figure and instead cite conversion & ROI benchmarks with clear sources.
Benchmarks ≠ targets: Use these as baselines; adjust your targets by AOV/margin, creative quality, and audience size.
Top Tools & Platforms by Sector (E-commerce / Retail)
CRMs (commercial backbone)
Salesforce Sales Cloud — Enterprise standard for complex, multi-brand/region catalogs and omnichannel service; strong partner ecosystem. User satisfaction ~4.4/5 on G2. G2
HubSpot Sales Hub (with Smart CRM) — Fastest time-to-value for mid-market DTC and retail; deep native marketing + sales alignment; 4.4/5 on G2 and extensive commerce integrations. G2
Where the momentum is: HubSpot continues to grow its installed base per 2025 earnings updates, while Salesforce remains the incumbent for large, global retailers that need deep customization. (Directional growth per HubSpot’s Q2-2025 results; Salesforce widely entrenched with very high review volume.) SkaiG2
Klaviyo — The Shopify-native default for lifecycle email/SMS, with strong segmentation and direct Shopify data sync. 4.6/5 on G2; called out as a top alternative to heavier suites. G2
Mailchimp — Broad SMB adoption and channel breadth; 4.3/5 on G2. Often used early, then upgraded to Klaviyo/Braze as data needs grow. G2
Braze (not plotted in our visual): high-performing cross-channel messaging at scale; common among app-led retailers. (Evidence base: G2/analyst recognition; not cited numerically here.)
What’s changing:Marketing automation is the most-replaced martech category for the fifth year running, with integrations and features the top drivers for switching; cost is the top consideration for new purchases. Expect continued migrations from generic ESPs to commerce-centric platforms (Klaviyo, Braze, Iterable). MarTech+1Chief Marketing Technologist
Digital analytics & experimentation
Google Analytics (GA4) — Near-ubiquitous free analytics; 4.5/5 on G2, with native BigQuery export and Tag Manager/Ads/Search Console integrations—foundational for performance teams. G2
Adobe Analytics — Enterprise-grade analysis for mature retailers; widely peer-reviewed by analysts and users. (Ratings visible across G2/Gartner Peer Insights.) G2Gartner
Mixpanel / Amplitude — Product/event analytics used by omni-channel and app-led retailers. Mixpanel 4.6/5 on G2. G2
Stack direction: GA4 + BigQuery (warehouse) + reverse-ETL into the ad stack is becoming the default measurement spine; teams layer Mixpanel/Amplitude for journey insights where app usage or granular events matter. G2
Commerce platforms (storefront & OMS adjacency)
Shopify & Shopify Plus — Dominant in usage; G2 rating 4.4/5 with 4,700+ reviews and a dense integrations marketplace (Klaviyo, GA, Meta/TikTok, HubSpot, Salesforce, etc.). G2
WooCommerce, Adobe Commerce (Magento), BigCommerce — Strong in specific segments (content-led, enterprise customization, mid-market B2B). Market-share snapshot (web usage): Shopify ~25%, WooCommerce Checkout ~13%, Shopify Plus ~9%, Magento ~7% (Top-level global distribution, Jul-2025). BuiltWith
Where share is moving: Shopify continues to expand share across e-commerce technologies; Adobe/Woo/BigCommerce hold in niches (custom, B2B, content-heavy) but face app-ecosystem pressure. BuiltWith
Retail media & marketplace ad tech
Pacvue — Widely used for Amazon/Walmart/Instacart activation; publishes granular quarterly retail media benchmarks used by brands to set CPM/CPC/ROAS expectations. Pacvue+1
Skai — Strategy and measurement POV across commerce media; State of Retail Media 2024 highlights cookie deprecation and the rising value of retailer first-party data/clean rooms. Skai
What’s trending: Budget flow into retail media keeps climbing, with teams consolidating onto cross-retailer platforms (Pacvue, Skai) for unified pacing/optimization and more consistent measurement. PacvueSkai
Key integrations most e-commerce teams are adopting (2025)
Warehouse & analytics: GA4 BigQuery export (native), then reverse-ETL to ads/CRM for audience sync. G2
Commerce → lifecycle:Shopify ↔ Klaviyo native sync for real-time segments (Viewed, Abandoned, Predicted LTV), plus Shopify ↔ HubSpot/Salesforce for service and offline attribution. (See Shopify’s G2 integrations list highlighting Klaviyo, HubSpot, Salesforce, GA, BigQuery, Meta, TikTok, etc.) G2
Signal resilience & privacy: Retail media measurement using clean rooms / first-party data strategies is accelerating as third-party cookies deprecate. Skai
Tools gaining vs. losing momentum (what the data suggests)
Gaining:
Shopify (+ app ecosystem) due to ecosystem breadth and lower total cost/time-to-launch vs. custom stacks. BuiltWith
Klaviyo / commerce-native lifecycle as marketers replace generic ESPs for deeper product/event segmentation tied to storefront data. MarTech
GA4 + BigQuery as the default analytics/warehouse spine for retail. G2
Under review / often replaced:
Generic MAP/ESP platforms and legacy point tools with weak integrations—marketing automation is the most-replaced martech category; “features/integrations” drive replacement and cost is top-of-mind in new buys. MarTech+1
Toolscape quadrant — Adoption vs. Satisfaction (2025)
Ratings & counts (sources):
Shopify 4.4/5, 4,706 reviews; integrations list includes Klaviyo, GA/BigQuery, Meta/TikTok, HubSpot, Salesforce. G2
Google Analytics 4.5/5; native BigQuery export noted in integrations. G2
What this means for your roadmap (actionable, data-tethered)
If you’re Shopify-led (most DTC): Favor Klaviyo for lifecycle and GA4→BigQuery for measurement; use Pacvue/Skai to standardize retail-media buying/measurement as budgets shift there. This aligns with the market’s adoption (Shopify share) and replacement trends (integrations first, costs scrutinized). BuiltWithMarTech+1
If you’re multi-brand/complex retail:Salesforce (commerce + CRM) or Adobe + Adobe Analytics stacks make sense when you need granular governance, multi-region catalogs, and enterprise-grade analysis; expect higher effort but durable control. G2+1
For teams revisiting martech in 2025: Benchmark replacements against the MarTech Replacement Survey: prioritize stacks with clean, maintained integrations (commerce ↔ lifecycle ↔ analytics/warehouse) and validate TCO—then pilot before broad deployment. MarTech+1
Creative & Messaging Trends
Which CTAs, hooks, and messaging types perform best (for ecommerce/retail)
Hooks that win attention (first 1–3 seconds)
Show the product immediately & in use. Both TikTok’s Creative Codes and YouTube’s ABCDs stress leading with the product/action and clear framing in the opening moments. TikTok For BusinessGoogle BusinessYouTube
Make it native to the feed. Vertical, mobile-first, creator-style clips (captions, jump cuts, on-screen text) are repeatedly recommended by TikTok and Meta performance guidance. TikTok For BusinessFacebook
CTA principles that convert
Give explicit direction. YouTube’s ABCDs (D = Direction) finds stronger outcomes when a clear CTA (“Shop now,” “Get offer,” “See styles”) appears on-screen/VO and in copy. Google BusinessGoogle Help
Tie CTA to value or convenience. Retail guidance highlights free or fast shipping and limited supply as effective prompts in retail. Tinuiti
Use social proof in the CTA block. Ratings/reviews near the CTA increase confidence; shoppers who engage with UGC convert +144% and generate +162% higher revenue/visitor. Bazaarvoice
Messaging angles that repeatedly perform
Value & price transparency. “Under $X,” bundles/BOGO, and free shipping callouts reduce the top abandonment reason (extra costs). EMARKETERBaymard Institute
Speed & convenience. Delivery speed, BOPIS/pickup, and easy returns messaging set expectations and lift conversion. EMARKETER
Trust & authenticity. Reviews, UGC, creator content, and real-use demos outperform polished product-only assets in many retail categories. Bazaarvoice
Value first, then sustainability. Consumers remain price-driven, but a sizable share will pay ~10% premium for sustainable options. McKinsey & CompanyPwC
Returns as a promise. Prominent fast refunds / easy returns reduce purchase anxiety; expectations are growing for immediate–24h refunds. EMARKETER
Swipe file–style example gallery (links to live playbooks)
Sustainability willingness to pay (use selectively with value framing). PwCMcKinsey & Company
Case Studies: Winning Campaigns (last 12 months)
A) Torrid — Full-funnel on TikTok with Unified Lift (US & CA, 2024)
Channel mix: TikTok Video Shopping Ads (Carousel + retargeting) + Traffic/Video Views/Reach; Unified Lift (Brand Lift + Conversion Lift) for measurement; 15/85 brand:performance split. TikTok For Business
Goal: Increase Casting Call applications, e-commerce and store sales, and brand health. TikTok For Business
Spend:Budget split disclosed (15% performance / 85% brand); total $ not disclosed. TikTok For Business
Results:+31.8% lift in application-submission clicks, +7% lift in purchases, +27% lift in ad recall; incremental e-commerce ROAS 24× higher than last-click attribution during the period; 4.7M+ reach. TikTok For Business
Why it worked:
Full-funnel structure (upper/mid + lower) matched to measurement via Unified Lift (proved incrementality). 2) Native commerce format (VSA + Carousel) collapsed discovery→purchase. 3) Retargeting audiences captured warm traffic efficiently. TikTok For Business
B) Matt Sleeps — Google full-funnel for Black Friday (NL, 2024)
Channel mix:YouTube Video View campaigns (top-funnel) + Search + Performance Max (lower funnel), with seasonality adjustments and dynamic budget scaling. Google Business
Goal: Grow purchases during Black Friday season while maintaining ROAS efficiency. Google Business
Spend: Budget levels not disclosed (strategy emphasized scaling spend when ROAS targets were met). Google Business
Results:3× more purchases (Nov 2024 vs Nov 2023) and +128% website traffic. Google Business
Why it worked:
Phased, full-funnel plan (awareness→consideration→conversion). 2) AI bidding (PMax) + seasonality adjustments to capitalize on peak demand. 3) Creative alignment (UGC + clear CTAs as sale neared). Google Business
C) HEYDUDE — Amazon DSP + Buy with Prime (US, 2025)
Channel mix:Amazon DSP using ASIN-level shopping signals + Buy with Prime on heydude.com; A/B test to validate purchase-rate lift from Buy with Prime. Amazon Ads
Goal: Reach new shoppers, grow e-commerce sales, and increase ROAS while keeping price points strong. Amazon Ads
Spend: Budget not disclosed; program scaled around Prime-eligible SKUs and peak moments (Prime Day/holidays). Amazon Ads
Results:11.4× ROAS on heydude.com, 47% of conversions new-to-brand, +13.3% AOV on Buy with Prime orders; +3.9% purchase-rate lift in an A/B test of Buy with Prime. Amazon Ads
Torrid full-funnel TikTok case study and results (+31.8% apps, +7% purchases, +27% recall; 15/85 spend split; Unified Lift) published by TikTok for Business in 2024; Ovative case study (Mar 19, 2025) reinforcing incrementality (24× vs last-click). TikTok For BusinessOvative Group
Matt Sleeps full-funnel Black Friday results (3× purchases, +128% traffic), Think with Google (Feb 2025). Google Business
HEYDUDE Amazon DSP + Buy with Prime outcomes (11.4× ROAS, 47% NTB, +13.3% AOV; +3.9% purchase-rate lift), Amazon Ads case study (2025) and Buy with Prime customer story (Mar 2025). Amazon AdsBuy with Prime
Marketing KPIs & Benchmarks by Funnel Stage
Stage
Metric
Average
Industry High
Notes (with sources)
Awareness
CPM (paid social)
~$8.17 (Meta, Jun 2025)
$11–$12 (category peaks)
Meta avg CPM: Gupta Media tracker (Jun 2025). TikTok CPM: ~$6.16 (Gupta). Higher CPMs by industry on Meta (e.g., Pet supplies retargeting ~$11.79) Lebesgue 2025.
Repeat purchase rate averages & upper range: Shopify Enterprise (28.2%); Criteo (category peaks to ~40%). ShopifyCriteo
Marketing Challenges & Opportunities
Rising ad costs
Search CPCs are up: The average Google Ads CPC across industries is ~$5.26 in 2025 (broader pressure vs. prior years). WordStreamLocaliQ
Social CPMs elevated: In June 2025, Meta CPMs averaged ~$8.17 and TikTok ~$6.16–$6.21; link CTRs roughly ~1.2% (Meta) and ~2.0% (TikTok) — solid reach, but acquisition costs can creep without strong AOV/LTV. Gupta MediaOpportunity: Shift marginal dollars to high-signal environments (retail media) where closed-loop sales data defends ROAS; US retail media alone is forecast >$62B in 2025 (+$10B YoY). EMARKETER
Privacy & regulatory shifts (cookies, consent)
Chrome’s cookie plan changed: In April–July 2025, Google outlined next steps and, following UK CMA oversight, moved from blanket third-party cookie removal to user choice — but measurement and consent complexity remain. Privacy SandboxGOV.UKOpportunity:First-party data programs (loyalty, email/SMS), clean room measurement with retailers/partners, and server-side tagging to keep durable insights within privacy guardrails. EMARKETER
AI’s role in creative & personalization
Ad buying and assets are increasingly automated. Platforms now make most placement/creative decisions (e.g., PMax, Advantage+), boosting results but reducing transparency (“black-box” tradeoffs). Wall Street Journal
Observed gains: Industry and platform recaps in 2025 highlight meaningful conversion lifts from Advantage+-style automation; leading analyses urge teams to scale personalization with gen-AI while adding governance. BilloMcKinsey & CompanyOpportunity: Treat AI as a force-multiplier for creative iteration (UGC variants, product feeds, video/image generation) and lifecycle personalization — paired with clear guardrails (brand prompts, human QA, incrementality tests). adswerve.comAmazon Ads
Organic reach decay (search & social)
AI Overviews drive fewer clicks. When Google shows an AI summary, users click outbound links about half as often (8% of visits vs. 15% without a summary). Large studies show AI Overviews now appear in ~13%+ of searches, reshaping SEO into “answer optimization.” Pew Research CenterSemrush
Publishers/brands report referral drops as search becomes more “zero-click,” pushing a shift to direct audience development. Financial TimesOpportunity: Re-weight toward owned channels (email/SMS, apps, loyalty), structured/authoritative content designed to be cited inside AI answers, and retail media for bottom-funnel demand capture. EMARKETER
Risk/Opportunity quadrant
How to read it:
Y-axis (Risk/Headwind): Rising costs, consent/measurement friction, and “zero-click” dynamics.
X-axis (Opportunity Upside): Where teams can gain via retail media’s closed-loop data, AI-accelerated creative/personalization, and owned-audience compounding.
Strategic Recommendations
Suggested playbooks by company maturity
Startup (pre-scale / <$5–10M GMV)
Channel mix: Prove fit with Google PMax + Shopping feed for high-intent demand and Demand Gen to create new demand across YouTube/Discover/Gmail. Google Help
Creative engine: Ship weekly UGC/video variants following TikTok Creative Codes and YouTube ABCDs to raise thumb-stop rate and clarity of CTAs. TikTok For Business | Google Business
Lifecycle foundation: Turn on welcome, browse, and cart-abandon flows; automation can drive outsized revenue (e.g., ~37% of email sales from just ~2% of sends). Omnisend
Measurement: Enable GA4 → BigQuery export (free export; BQ costs apply) so you can segment CAC/LTV by cohort from day one. Google Help
Growth (multi-channel / $10–50M GMV)
Add retail media: Allocate test budget to Retail Media Networks (RMNs) (Amazon/Walmart/etc.) for closed-loop sales attribution; US retail media ad spend is >$62B in 2025. EMARKETER
Scale automation: Lean into Meta Advantage+ / catalog for efficient broad optimization; pair with TikTok prospecting where CPMs and LCTR are favorable (e.g., ~$6.16 CPM, ~2.0% LCTR in June 2025). Facebook | Gupta Media
Checkout ops: Attack abandonment drivers; global cart abandonment sits around ~70%. Reduce extra costs, clarify delivery/returns, and streamline forms. Baymard Institute
Scale (>$50M GMV / omnichannel)
Portfolio plan: Treat RMNs + PMax + social video as a system—from upper-funnel creation (Demand Gen/YouTube) to retail media conversion and loyalty reactivation. Google Help | EMARKETER
Data & privacy: With Chrome shifting to user choice on third-party cookies, double-down on first-party data (clean rooms, server-side tagging) and robust MMM/lift tests. Privacy Sandbox
Post-purchase economics: Tighten refunds/returns SLAs; 21% of consumers expect instant refunds, 33% within 24 hours, which impacts repeat purchase and NPS. EMARKETER
Best channels to invest in (with data)
Retail Media Networks (Amazon/Walmart/Target, etc.) — growing >$62B in the US (2025); strong for bottom-funnel ROAS with closed-loop sales data. EMARKETER
Google Ads (Performance Max + Demand Gen) — unify all Google surfaces for both high-intent capture and new demand creation on YouTube/Discover/Gmail. Google Help
TikTok & Social Video — efficient reach and engagement (e.g., ~$6.16 CPM; ~2.01% LCTR in Jun-2025), ideal for creative testing and category discovery. Gupta Media
Content & ad formats to test (what to ship next)
TikTok Creative Codes (6 principles): Fast branding, native storytelling, and “safe-space” composition for higher engagement. TikTok For Business
YouTube ABCDs: Attention, Branding, Connection, Direction — evidence-based video structure that correlates with lift. Google Business
Meta catalog/carousel & product tags: Efficient at scale for broad + retargeting; pair with UGC hooks. Facebook
Google Demand Gen video (Shorts, in-feed): Visual, multi-format ads built to create demand before search intent exists. Google Help | blog.google
Retention & LTV growth strategies
Automations before blasts: Welcome, browse, and cart flows convert far above newsletters (automation can drive ~37% of email revenue from ~2% of sends). Omnisend
Returns as loyalty lever: Tighten refund speed (target same-day to 24h where feasible) to protect re-purchase propensity. EMARKETER
1P data activation: Build segments (VIPs, lapsing, multi-category) in BigQuery from GA4 exports and sync to ads/CRM for LTV-based bidding and personalization. Google Help
Post-purchase content: How-to, cross-sell, and care tips via email/SMS increase product satisfaction and repeat rate (Shopify puts average repeat rate around ~28.2%). Shopify
3×3 strategy matrix (channel × tactic × goal)
Forecast & Industry Outlook (Next 12–24 Months)
Predicted shifts in ad budgets, tooling, and platform dominance
A) Full list of sources (hyperlinked)
Market size, growth & macro context
U.S. Census Bureau – Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales (Q2 2025; ecommerce = 16.3% of total retail, SA). Census.gov
Adobe – Holiday Season 2024 Recap (US online spend $241.4B, +8.7% YoY; majority of transactions via mobile). Adobe Newsroom
Adobe – Prime Day/“Black Friday in Summer” 2025 (US online spend $24.1B, July 8–11). ReutersAdobe for Business
Digital Commerce 360 – Quarterly online sales explainer & penetration (context on adjusted vs. unadjusted penetration). Digital Commerce 360
Retail media / commerce media
Insider Intelligence (eMarketer) – Amazon retail media ad revenues will pass $60B in 2025 (WARC forecast). EMARKETER
WARC – Amazon retail media ad revenue to hit $60bn in 2025 (detail on $60.6B; 2026 outlook). WARC
Insider Intelligence (eMarketer) – Worldwide retail media ad spending 2025 (US & China account for 80%+ of spend). EMARKETER
Scope & period. This report synthesizes secondary research published between January 2024 and August 2025, emphasizing sources that publish recurring, methodologically transparent indices (e.g., U.S. Census, Adobe Analytics, Insider Intelligence/WARC). Figures are cited verbatim and linked directly to originals. Census.govAdobe for BusinessEMARKETER
No primary survey in this edition. We did not run a proprietary survey; any cohort metrics (e.g., Triple Whale spend share) are clearly labeled and used to illustrate directional patterns rather than to define the entire market. Triple Whale
Normalization & comparability. When sources reported overlapping metrics (e.g., conversion rates), we prioritized: (1) official government series for macro totals; (2) direct-measurement panels for ecommerce spend and pricing; and (3) large-scale platform or vendor benchmarks for channel costs and CRs. Where methodologies differ (e.g., adjusted vs. unadjusted ecommerce penetration), we kept the source’s definition intact and disclosed it in-line. Census.govAdobe Newsroom
Attribution & bias checks. Vendor-published results (platform case studies/benchmarks) can be self-serving; we used them for tactics/creative guidance and triangulated performance claims with neutral or cross-vendor panels wherever possible. Examples: TikTok Creative Codes vs. YouTube ABCDs; WordStream vs. Skai for PPC benchmarks. TikTok For BusinessGoogle HelpWordStreamSkai
Currency & units. Dollar figures are in USD, nominal, as reported by the source. Percentages are reported as given; for rolling-period or cohort metrics, we note the cohort and window (e.g., “Triple Whale cohort, Apr 2025”). Triple Whale
Updates & versioning. Because ad costs and retail media allocations shift quickly, we anchored budget/channel-mix exhibits to the latest available monthly or quarterly data points in 2025 and labeled the timestamp in each caption/table. Where sources are updated continuously (e.g., Dynamic Yield benchmarks), readers should check the live dashboards linked above for current values. Dynamic Yield
Author
Samuel Edwards
Chief Marketing Officer
Throughout his extensive 10+ year journey as a digital marketer, Sam has left an indelible mark on both small businesses and Fortune 500 enterprises alike. His portfolio boasts collaborations with esteemed entities such as NASDAQ OMX, eBay, Duncan Hines, Drew Barrymore, Price Benowitz LLP, a prominent law firm based in Washington, DC, and the esteemed human rights organization Amnesty International. In his role as a technical SEO and digital marketing strategist, Sam takes the helm of all paid and organic operations teams, steering client SEO services, link building initiatives, and white label digital marketing partnerships to unparalleled success. An esteemed thought leader in the industry, Sam is a recurring speaker at the esteemed Search Marketing Expo conference series and has graced the TEDx stage with his insights. Today, he channels his expertise into direct collaboration with high-end clients spanning diverse verticals, where he meticulously crafts strategies to optimize on and off-site SEO ROI through the seamless integration of content marketing and link building.
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